|
Reviewed by David Lampe
Greater Phoenix 2100, a project of Arizona State University, has released the Greater Phoenix Regional Atlas: A Preview of the Regions 50-Year Future. Printed in large, road atlas format and employing regional maps to present data on population growth, housing costs, commute times, racial-ethnic distributions, water consumption, and many other topics, this attractive, full-color publication illustrates how regional indicator data might be used to focus citizen attention on cross-cutting, inter-jurisdictional issues and, perhaps, stimulate constructive public dialogue and action.
 The Atlas project was instigated, not surprisingly, in large part by Phoenixs explosive growth during the 1980s and 1990s. Between 1990 and 2000 Maricopa County (the core of Greater Phoenix) led the nation in population growth, swelling by 44.8 percent from 2,122,101 to 3,072,149 residents. An introductory essay discusses the potential implications of slow, moderate and rapid population growth over the next 50 years, with the first scenario very fast growth (continuing the annualized growth rate of 4.4 percent per year experienced from 1950 to 2000) resulting in a Greater Phoenix population of 28 million and a metropolitan area whose urbanized land mass expands beyond Maricopa County to occupy all of Pinal County to the southeast and a narrow band of southern Yavapai County to the north. The vast majority of Greater Phoenixs urbanized population currently is concentrated in the panhandle of Maricopa County, owing to historical patterns of urban conversion of existing agricultural lands and impediments posed by natural barriers (mountains and publicly protected lands). These constraints, the Atlas explains, would logically direct urbanization into all of Pinal and part of Yavapai Counties. The second and third scenarios which assume slower rates of growth still predict alarmingly large populationsparticularly because they are calculated by annualizing the lowest growth rate experienced during the past two decades and the past century, respectively. At the latter of rate of growth (2.2 percent per year), Greater Phoenix would still host a population of nearly 10 million by 2050.
Framed as one of the first products of the Greater Phoenix 2100 project, the Greater Phoenix Regional Atlas makes a case for sober consideration of future public policies regarding transportation and resource allocation, not so much by forecasting the needs and environmental impacts of a 10 million-person metropolis as by demonstrating how dramatically the regions proportions have changed during the past 20 years. Indeed, some of the maps are based on two or three data points for the variable under consideration, measured at ten-year intervals. Many others simply albeit very effectively reflect the conditions prevailing during a single year or at a specific time of measurement. The very fact that the changes depicted have taken place during the span of a single generation, no doubt, is calculated to get the attention of readers. And this is precisely the advantage that the Greater Phoenix Regional Atlas derives from its primary reliance on geographically based data and graphic outputclear communication of the consequences of both our public policies and our personal economic decisions.
Each of the Atlass 11 substantive sections is introduced with commentary contributed by a regionally recognized authority, and features one or more maps (with occasional supplementary tabular charts) accompanied by objective explanation, which forms the bulk of the text. This objective material is largely the work of Ray Quay, Assistant Director of Planning for the City of Phoenix. On loan from the City of Phoenix during 2001-02, Quay served as director of Greater Phoenix 2100 for approximately one year.
Importantly, the Atlas is intended as a demonstration product or perhaps a teaser for a more dynamic on-line E-Atlas, which currently is under development but viewable in preliminary form. Advantages of the electronic version include its pliability permitting ongoing expansion and revision and its interactive, user-determined format.
Contemporary technology has enabled us to access, manipulate and display with relative ease the volumes of information collected on ourselves, our communities, our society, economy and habits, and our environment. Ingenuity is required, however, to capture, interpret and present the particularly informative spatial-social-economic nexus of such data in a format appealing to a diverse audience. It is in this respect that the Greater Phoenix Regional Atlas succeeds so well, and why any steward of place who contemplates an indicator project should consult Greater Phoenix 2100s website and printed Atlas. Efforts such as this one are an important first step in building a grassroots constituency for regional action.
For more information on Greater Phoenix 2100 or to order the printed Atlas, contact: , Tempe, AZ 85287-3211; voice /fax or visit their website at .
|
